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 Key Figures in Forecasting

In Forecasting, you can display the following key figures on the Interactive Forecasting screen.

Key Figures for Demand, Item, and Demand/Item

The system displays the following key figures for the demand, the number of order items (item), and the average demand size per order item (demand/item). The system calculates the key figures for the average demand size per order item at runtime using the corresponding key figures for the demand and for the number of order items.

Note Note

A key figure that is not zero for the demand can therefore not be zero for the number of order items. If this is the case, the system generates an error message.

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Final History

In this key figure, you can see the values that the system has calculated as the final history when creating the demand history. You can also see the same key figure for the demand and for the number of order items on the Adjust Demand History screen. You get there from the SAP Easy Access screen under Start of the navigation path Service Parts Planning (SPP) Next navigation step Environment Next navigation step Data Administration End of the navigation path .

Outlier Correction

You can only see this key figure for location products for which you have set the Indicator: Automatic Outlier Correction indicator in the forecast profile on the General tab page. In this key figure, you see the values of the final history after outlier correction .

Standard Deviation Outlier Correction

If you have performed outlier correction for the final history, in this key figure you see the standard deviation for the calculation of the final history after outlier correction.

Forecast

In this key figure, you can see the forecast that the system has calculated based on the values of the final history or of the final history after outlier correction.

Note Note

Note that the following can occur in the result for the current period: Depending on your entry in the IMG activity Define Forecast Service Profiles under General Data in the FcstRelWorkDays field, the system uses the number of work days of the current period that have already passed to create the demand history. It then scales these work days to get a demand history for the whole period. In this case, the entry in the Forecast key figure for the current period is this scaled value and is not a value calculated according to a forecast strategy.

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Expost Forecast

The system only creates an expost forecast for location products whose forecast it has created using one of the following forecast models:

  • First-order exponential smoothing

  • Second-order exponential smoothing

  • Moving average

  • Linear regression model

  • Seasonal trend model

  • Intermittent forecast model

For more information about the expost forecast, see the description for each of the forecast models.

Disaggregated Forecast

The system only creates this forecast for entry location products or for location products for which you execute a manual forecast on the Interactive Forecasting screen. If you save a forecast, the system disaggregates the forecast result to the child location products of the location product. You see the result of the disaggregation in this key figure.

Note Note

This is why there is no result for the disaggregated forecast for entry locations.

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Manual Forecast

In this key figure, you can manually specify a forecast result for all periods in the future. The system then takes the result you enter manually as the final forecast. For more information, see forecast approval .

Manually Disaggregated Forecast

If you have specified a value for a location product in the Manual Forecast key figure, the system disaggregates this value to all child location products of this location product when you save the forecast. The system displays the results of this disaggregation in the forecast results of these child locations in the Manual Disag. Forecast key figure.

Final Forecast

The values in the Final Forecast key figure are the values that you or the system has approved as the forecast result and that are provided to the follow-on processes in Service Parts Planning (SPP).

For more information about how the final forecast is determined, see Forecast Approval .

Standard Deviation Forecast

When saving the forecast results, the system calculates the standard deviation . In this key figure, the system displays the standard deviation of the Forecast key figure.

Standard Deviation Disaggregated Forecast

In this key figure, the system displays the standard deviation of the Disaggregated Forecast key figure when saving the forecast results.

Standard Deviation Final Forecast

In this key figure, the system displays the standard deviation of the Final Forecast key figure when saving the forecast results.

MAD

When saving the forecast results, the system calculates the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and displays it in this key figure.

Key Figure for Demand

The system displays the following key figures for the demand only:

Basic Value

This key figure is only displayed for location products for which you create the forecast using a trend model such as second order exponential smoothing or linear regression. For these location products, this key figure displays the basic value that the system calculates in each trend model.

Trend

This key figure is only displayed for location products for which you create a forecast using a trend model. For these location products, this key figure displays the trend value that the system calculates in each trend model.

Season Indices

This key figure is only displayed for location products for which you create a forecast using a season model.

  • If you create the forecast for a location product using the seasonal trend model, the system displays the seasonal coefficients, which you defined in Customizing, for this location product. For more information, see the Implementation Guide (IMG) for Advanced Planning and Optimization under Start of the navigation path Supply Chain Planning Next navigation step Service Parts Planning (SPP) Next navigation step Forecasting Next navigation step Define Seasonal Coefficients End of the navigation path .

    Note Note

    If you have changed the gamma factor in the forecast profile, so that it is no longer zero, the values in this key figure can change and deviate from the values that you defined in Customizing.

    End of the note.

  • If you create the forecast for a location product using the seasonal trend model with fixed period groupings, the system displays the seasonal coefficients, which it has calculated in this forecast model, for this location product.

Tracking

In this key figure, the system displays the result of the Trigg’s tracking signal planning service. If this result is greater than the tracking threshold value, the system sets a tracking signal.

Forecast Automatic Model Selection

If you perform automatic model selection , in this key figure the system displays the forecast result that it calculated according to the optimized forecast model. You can compare this result with the forecast result of the previous model, which you can see in the Forecast key figure.

Automatic Model Selection RMSE

During automatic model selection, the system calculates the root of the mean square error (RMSE) for all forecast models in question for a location product and then selects the model with the smallest RMSE. In this key figure, you can see the RMSE of the selected model.

Key Figures for Leading-Indicator-Based Forecasting

If you are using leading-indicator-based forecasting, the system displays additional key figures. For more information, see Leading-Indicator-Based Forecast Key Figures .