Planning Services for Forecasting

To perform forecasting on a regular basis, you can set up a planning profile for forecasting in the Planning Service Manager (PSM). To do so, you plan the required planning services for forecasting in the PSM service list of the planning profile and assign a service profile to each one. For more information, see Use of the Planning Service Manager for Service Parts Planning.

Features

The following planning services are available for forecasting:

Forecast Service

There are various functions available within the forecast service. If you want to use several of these functions, you must schedule the forecast service more than once and assign a different service profile each time. You can schedule the following functions:

Forecast Run
Trigg’s Tracking Signal
Tripping
Automatic Model Selection
Rough-Tuning
Composite Forecast
If you choose the composite forecast function, the PSM executes the above functions in a fixed sequence.

The figure below shows the flow of the composite forecast:
1. The system performs Trigg’s tracking signal. There are the following possible outcomes:
  - The tracking threshold value is not exceeded and the system does not set a tracking signal.
    In this case, the system performs tripping, calculates forecast values, and ends the forecast run.
    
    You can define the tracking threshold value in the forecast profile on the Model Selection tab page.
  - The tracking threshold value is exceeded and the system sets a tracking signal.
    In this case, the system checks whether there was a certain number of tracking signals in the tracking horizon. If not, the system executes tripping, calculates forecast values, and ends the forecast run. Otherwise it continues with step b.
    
    You can define the tracking horizon and the number of tracking signals that must be exceeded for the selection of a new forecast model on the Model Selection tab page.
2. For stability reasons, the system checks whether the current forecast model has been used for long enough. You can specify how long a forecast model must be used for before it can be changed for each forecast model in the forecast profile on the Model Selection tab page.
  - If the current forecast model has not been used for long enough, the system performs rough-tuning. Depending on whether or not parameters were changed during rough-tuning, the system either resets the trip counter or it performs tripping, calculates forecast values, and ends the forecast run.
  - If the current forecast model has been used for long enough, the system performs automatic model selection. Depending on whether or not the forecast model or parameters were changed during rough-tuning, the system either resets the trip counter or it performs tripping, calculates forecast values, and ends the forecast run.

Note Note

If you set the Consider Leading Indicator indicator in the service profile for the forecast service, the system creates a leading-indicator-based forecast in addition to the forecast that is based on the demand history. The system also carries out the individual functions of the forecast service for the leading-indicator-based forecast.

To be able to carry out a leading-indicator-based forecast, you need to have historical data for your leading indicators and coefficients. This means that if you set this indicator, you must have also scheduled the preparation service for the leading-indicator-based forecast.

End of the note.

Forecast Service (TPOP)

This forecast service executes the forecast for location products that you deliver through third-party order processing (TPOP). In this process, the service proceeds as described under Forecast Service. For more information, see TPOP Forecast.

Forecast Disaggregation Service

The forecast disaggregation service disaggregates the results of the forecast run from the entry location to all child locations.

If you set the Consider Leading Indicator indicator in the service profile for the forecast disaggregation service, the system also disaggregates the leading-indicator-based forecast.

Calculation of the Standard Deviation and MAD

This forecast service calculates the standard deviation and the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the disaggregated and the statistical forecast.

If you set the Consider Leading Indicator indicator in the service profile for calculation standard deviation and MAD, the system also calculates the standard deviation and MAD for the leading-indicator-based forecast.

Calculation of the Standard Deviation and MAD (TPOP)

This forecast service determines the standard deviation and MAD for location products that you deliver through TPOP. The service calculates these values only for the statistical forecast since there is no disaggregated forecast in the case of TPOP.

Forecast Approval

During forecast approval, the system calculates which forecast results it can automatically approve and which require manual approval.

If you set the Consider Leading Indicator indicator in the service profile for forecast approval, the system also carries out forecast approval for the leading-indicator-based forecast.

You can perform an EOQ/SFT calculation for each individual part directly after the forecast and forecast approval by assigning the service profile to the forecast approval service profile.

Forecast Approval (TPOP)

This forecast service executes the forecast approval for location products that you deliver through TPOP.

Phase-In Forecast

Phase-in planning creates a forecast for new products, which have little or no historical data.

Phase-Out Forecast

Phase-out planning creates a forecast for products in discontinuation.

Recalculation of Forecast in the Past

During recalculation of the forecast in the past, the system calculates historical forecasts after a change of forecast model.

Recalculation of Forecast in the Past (TPOP)

This forecast service recalculates the forecast in the past for location products that you deliver through TPOP.

Preparation for Leading-Indicator-Based Forecasting

During leading-indicator-based forecasting the system creates a forecast for a location product on the basis of the forecast for a leading indicator and for a coefficient. The preparation service for leading-indicator-based forecasting creates a demand history for the leading indicator and determines historical data for the coefficient.

Copying Forecast Profiles

You can use the forecast profile copy service to copy forecast profiles within one version.