Key Figures in Short-Term Forecasting

The following key figures are available in short-term forecasting:

History

See Key Figures in Forecasting

Stock-Outs

This key figure is the amount by which the forecast exceeds your current sales, if there is no stock left in inventory. For example, your forecasted amount is 200 units. But, if your actual sales were 100 units and you have nothing left in inventory, there is a stock-out. This indicates that there is something wrong on the delivery side, because you did not receive the stock you expected to receive.

Calculated History

This key figure is the total quantity of history and stock-outs.

Time-Based Aggregation Factors

This key figure is the statistical forecast that is broken down into daily or sub-daily demands, based on ratios, and represents the buying pattern of the consumer.

The time-based disaggregation disaggregates the weekly forecast into daily or sub-daily forecast values. Forecasting can calculate time-based disaggregation factors automatically, based on historical data and consider exponential smoothing factors, where needed. If required, forecasting also enables the manual maintenance of time-based disaggregation factors.

Forecast

See Key Figures in Forecasting

Post-Promotion Dip

This key figure is the total amount of a product's baseline sales that has been cannibalized after you run a promotion for this product.

Promotion Cannibalization

This key figure is the percentage value by which a new or promoted product reduces the sales volume or sales revenue of existing, related products (see Promotion Cannibalization ).

Projected Sales

This key figure is the resulting quantity when the daily sales history (received in the data import controller ) is compared to the current forecast of the ongoing forecast period; this quantity is used to calculate the projected sales for the remaining portion of the period.

The projected sales is always calculated for baseline products; the forecast period could be a day, a week, or a month (see Calculating Projected Sales ).

Forecast or Projected Sales

This key figure is either the forecast or the projected sales, depending on a threshold and ratio of accumulated sales and accumulated forecast.You can specify the threshold for each day of the week in the short-term forecast parameters

Today is Wednesday, and the week started on Monday.The system calculates the following values:

The accumulated sales is the total sales for Monday and Tuesday.

The accumulated forecast is the total forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

The ratio is the accumulated sales divided by the accumulated forecast.

For the rest of the week (Wednesday to Sunday), taking Wednesday as the example, the system determines the key figure Forecast or Projected Sales as follows:

If the absolute value of 1 minus the ratio is greater than Wednesday's threshold, the key figure Forecast or Projected Sales for Wednesday equals the projected sales for Wednesday.

If the absolute value of 1 minus the ratio is less than or equals Wednesday's threshold, the key figure Forecast or Projected Sales for Wednesday equals the forecast for Wednesday.

Manual Forecast

This key figure is the short-term demand forecast value that you entered manually.

Released Demand

This key figure is the demand quantity that was used for the replenishment calculation. If you maintained a manual forecast, this forecast is taken. If you have not maintained a manual forecast, the forecast or projected sales quantity is taken.

If nothing is entered, SAP SNC takes this as a zero.

Released Promotion Demand

This key figure is the demand quantity from the promotion planning that is taken for the replenishment calculation as promotion demand.

Promotion History

This key figure is the promotion quantity sent by the customer through a product activity message. You can also manually enter information on the Data Inbound Control screen.

To calculate the promotion history, there has to be an active promotion in the system.

If customers do not know their promotion history, they can send the promotion and baseline total, so that the system can calculate the promotion history from this amount.

Promotion Stock-Out

This key figure is the amount of inventory you need (and currently do not have) to meet your promotional forecast. Here, your forecast exceeds your actual sales. This means that something is wrong with your deliveries.