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Background documentationKey Figures in Forecasting

 

In the SAP Supply Network Collaboration (SNC) Web UI, in the forecast overview and in the forecast details you find the following key figures:

  • History

    This key figure is the sales data for a particular product at a given location over a particular period.

  • Corrected History

    This key figure is the original history data that the user has modified. Reasons for this modification include the following:

    • Irregularities, such as the weather

    • Sales that are too high or too low

    • Non-working days adjustment

      When calculating the weekly history, a 5-day workweek, not just a 7-day week, can be considered. For example, if, in a 7-day week, you have a forecast of 20 units per day, you can calculate the correct history for 5 days with the following formula:

      (20 x 5 = 100) x 7/5 = 140

    • Introduction of a new product

      Example Example

      For the past two years, your company sells shampoo A. Two months ago, you introduced shampoo B. The next time the forecast is run, you need to correct the forecast for shampoo A to include data for shampoo B. (You can use product A's history as the corrected history for product B.)

      End of the example.

  • Forecast

    This key figure is the future sales projection for a product and includes the following patterns:

    • Seasonal

    • Trend

    • Constant

  • Corrected Forecast

    This key figure is a forecast that you have manually corrected.

  • Ex-Post Forecast

    This key figure is the result of a forecast that was run in past periods for which actual demand history is also available. The system calculates the forecast accuracy measurements by comparing the differences between the actual values and the ex-post values (for more information, see Ex-Post Forecast). This key figure is available only in the forecast details.

  • Seasonal Index

    This key figure is an index with which the system determines and updates the seasonal percentage of the forecast value, if a seasonal model or a seasonal trend model is used to calculate the forecast. This key figure is available only in the forecast details.

  • Trend

    This key figure is the demand that rises or falls constantly over a long period of time, with only occasional deviations. This key figure is available only in the forecast details.

  • Basic Value

    This key figure is the mean of the historical values of the first historical season, depending on the forecast model.

For more information on calculating the seasonal index, trend, and basic value, see Model Initialization.