Forecast with Second-Order Exponential Smoothing Model
In this process, the system executes a forecast with the second-order exponential smoothing model. This forecast model can be used to determine suspected trend behavior. The system uses second-order exponential smoothing to determine future demand. The forecast is not constant.
Before calculating the forecast, the system executes model initialization and outlier correction. After calculating the forecast, the system calculates the standard deviation and the MAD and performs a trend limitation.
For more information about how the system chooses this model, see Automatic Model Selection.
Process
The system executes the forecast with the second-order exponential smoothing model according to the following formula:
F(t+1) is the forecast for the next period.
B1(t) is the once-smoothed basic value.
B2(t) is the twice-smoothed basic value.
V(t) is the final history of the last period.
This value is displayed in the
Final History
key figure on theAdjust Demand History
screen. You get to this screen on theSAP Easy Access
screen under
Advanced Planning and Optimization
Service Parts Planning (SPP)
Environment
Data Administration
.Alpha is the smoothing constant for the once-smoothed basic value and beta is the smoothing constant for the twice-smoothed basic value.
You can define the smoothing constants alpha and beta on the
SAP Easy Access
menu under Advanced Planning and Optimization
Service Parts Planning (SPP)
Planning
Forecasting
Forecast Profile
on the Model Parameter
tab page in theAlpha Factor
andBeta Factor
fields.
The trend results from the forecast with the Second-Order Exponential Smoothing model as follows:
B2(t) — B2(t-1)