Show TOC

 Forecast with Moving Average Model

Purpose

With this process the system executes a forecast with the moving average model. This forecast model is a model used to rapidly adjust the forecast. It determines future demand based on the average of the past x periods. The forecast with this model is constant.

Before calculating the forecast, the system carries out outlier correction . After calculating the forecast, the system calculates the standard deviation and the MAD .

For further information about how the system chooses this model, see Automatic Model Selection .

Process

  1. The system takes the demand from the first x periods of the historical analysis period and uses it to calculate the mean value.

    You can specify x on the SAP Easy Access screen under Start of the navigation path Advanced Planning and Optimization Next navigation step Service Parts Planning Next navigation step Planning Next navigation step Forecast Next navigation step Forecast Profile End of the navigation path on the Model Parameter tab page in the Periods in “Moving Average” Model parameter.

    You can enter the historical analysis period on the tab page General in the parameter Historical Periods .

    The mean value is the forecast for the next periods. You can define the number of forecast periods on the General tab page in the Forecast Periods parameter.

  2. The system pushes the time window of the first x periods one period forward, and then calculates the average as described above.

    Here, the mean value is the forecast for the next periods, which you can define in the parameter Forecast Periods . You can see the result of this calculation on the SAP Easy Access screen under Start of the navigation path Advanced Planning and Optimization Next navigation step Service Parts Planning (SPP) Next navigation step Planning Next navigation step Forecasting Next navigation step Interactive Forecasting End of the navigation path in the Demand: Expost Forecast key figure.

  3. The system continues to push the time window forward by one period, calculate the average, and calculate the ex-post forecast until it arrives at the current period. At this point the ex-post forecast then goes over into the actual forecast.