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 Phase-Out Profile

Definition

Forecast curve that the system creates using historical data of products that are in the same phase-out group. The system uses this profile to create forecast values for products in discontinuation that belong to this phase-out group.

Use

To create a forecast for the discontinuation period of a product, you assign a suitable phase-out profile to the product in discontinuation. To create a phase-in profile, you assign other products in discontinuation that have a similar sales behavior to the same phase-in group. The system then creates a phase-out profile for the phase-out group using the sales history for the year after the year in which the production end date falls.

You can define the characteristics of the phase-out groups and the resulting phase-out profile in the IMG activity Define Phase-out Group in Customizing for Advanced Planning and Optimization under Start of the navigation path Supply Chain Planning Next navigation step Service Parts Planning (SPP) Next navigation step Forecast End of the navigation path .

Note Note

If you want to use a standard phase-out group, you can maintain this phase-out group for version 000. In this case, the system passes this phase-out group down to all location products. For more information, see Forecast Profile Inheritance .

End of the note.

Structure

A phase-out profile is defined by the following parameters for phase-out groups:

  • The length of the phase-out profile in years

  • The minimum number of valid location products that the system needs to generate a phase-out profile for a phase-out group

  • A minimum percentage that the phase-out profile cannot exceed

    The system defines the demand of the year in which the production end date falls as 100%. The phase-out profile shows the percentage by which the demand will fall in each year to come. The minimum percentage value is the lower limit for the phase-in profile. When the phase-out forecast calculates values that lie below this lower limit, the system takes the value of the lower limit as these values.

  • A percentage for the reduction of the phase-out forecast.

    If the number of values of the available phase-out profile does not go far enough into the future, the system takes the two previous values to extend the profile using exponential updating. If the last available value is greater that the penultimate available value, the system updates this trend behavior for one more year, and then reduces the value by the percentage for the reduction of the phase-out forecast.

  • A limit value for the deviation of the phase-out forecast and the actual demand history.

    In the Adjust Phase-Out Forecast planning service, the system compares the results of the phase-out forecast up to the current point in time with the actual demand history up to the current point in time, and calculates the deviation of these two values. If the deviation is greater than the limit value, the system corrects the results of the phase-out forecast by the deviation value.

  • The minimum number of years in the past that must be available to adjust the phase-out forecast