Trigg’s tracking signal

The system uses Trigg’s tracking signal to establish whether a forecast model is still valid, or if it would be better to choose a new one. To do so, the system looks for non systematic forecast errors.

A non systematic forecast error occurs if the calculated forecast values are incorrect without a recognizable pattern. For example, if the demand forecast for a product for the month of May is much too high, and much too low for the month of June, this is a non systematic forecast error.

Tripping

The system uses tripping to analyze the performance of an existing model and to initialize the base values and the corresponding deviation. To do so, the system looks for systematic forecast errors.

A systematic error occurs if a specific forecast error occurs time and time again. For example, if the demand of a product has quadrupled since June 2004 yet the system still calculates the forecast on the basis of the demand history since 2000, the demand forecast will be regularly and permanently incorrect. This is a systematic forecast error.

You can schedule Trigg’s tracking signal in the forecast service profile as a regular planning service of the Planning Service Manager (PSM). In this case, Trigg's tracking signal sets the Tracking Threshold: Date Exceeded date on the Interactive Forecasting screen.

The Trigg’s tracking signal function is also integrated in the Perform Combined Forecast service. You can also schedule this as a regular planning service in the forecast service profile. If you schedule this combined service in the PSM, the system checks certain stability rules and, if necessary, triggers automatic model selection after setting the exceed date.

You can schedule tripping in the forecast service profile as a regular PSM planning service or as part of the Perform Combined Forecast planning service.