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Function documentation Adaptive Forecasting Locate the document in its SAP Library structure

Use

With this function the system attempts to automatically find the best forecast settings (model and parameters) for selections in background processing. For each selection in the job it determines the best profile and assigns it to the selection. In future jobs, the forecast is carried out using this profile. Optionally you can set up the system so that if an error threshold is exceeded for a selection, the system again starts automatic model selection and finds the new optimal forecast settings for the selection.

This function is only available in background planning.

Integration

This function is fully integrated in the background processing transactions together with the forecast strategy Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2.

Prerequisites

For both functions

     You have not set the Always use job profileindicator for the activity.

     You have assigned a forecast profile that is based on forecast strategy Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2 (strategy 56) to the activity. (This is the job profile.)

For Generate profile on error

     A profile has already been assigned to the selection in question. This means that

     You have already run a background forecasting job in which the Generate profile and assign it function was active

     You have carried out a forecast in interactive planning with any forecast strategy or

     You have manually assigned a forecast profile to the selection. For this, from the SAP Easy Access screen, choose Demand Planning ® Environment ® Assign Forecast Profiles to a Selection.

     You have entered a diagnosis group in the forecast profile that is assigned to the selection.

Features

Two similar functions are available:

     Generate Forecast Profile and Assign it

You assign a forecast profile that is based on the Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2 strategy to the activity. After the system has found the best forecast method and optimized the parameters for a selection it uses this data to generate a forecast profile and to assign it to the selection. This runs once; it does not check whether the chosen method is always the best. You use the second function to do this.

For more information about assigning profiles to selections, see Selections in Forecasting and Assignment of Forecast Profiles.

     Generate New Profile on Error

In mass processing it is possible to check the quality of a forecast for a selection by assigning a diagnosis group to the forecast profile. If a measure of error in the diagnosis group is exceeded, the system automatically starts Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2 and assigns the new profile that is generated to the selection.

Activities

Both indicators are available on the activity maintenance screen. To access this screen from the SAP Easy Access screen, choose Demand Planning ® Planning ® Demand Planning in the Background ® Define Activities for Mass Processing. On the initial screen, enter the name of the activity and choose Change. The two indicators are at the bottom of the Control Parameters section of the screen.

For more information about background processing, see Forecast Execution with Mass Processing and in particular Creating an Activity.

Generate profile on error

Make sure when using this function that the measure of error (MAD, MAPE etc. ) that you use in the automatic model selection 2 to find the best forecast profile is also included in the diagnosis group that is used in the forecast profile.

After the system has determined that a error measure has been exceeded, started automatic model selection 2 and determined that the error measure is still exceeded it does not try to further optimize the model. Instead it assigns the new profile and issues an alert.

 

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