Trend/Seasonal Models w. 1st Order Exp. Smoothing

Definition

The following formula is used in forecast strategies 20, 21, 30, 31, 40 and 41, and in forecast strategies 50 to 56 where a trend, seasonal, or seasonal trend model is determined. The calculation takes into account both trend and seasonal variations. The basic value, the trend value and the seasonal index are calculated after the initial period.

See also Model Initialization as well as the definition of exponential smoothing in the APO Glossary.

Formula for First-Order Exponential Smoothing in a Trend, Seasonal or Seasonal Trend Model

Use

Use the trend, seasonal or seasonal trend model with first-order exponential smoothing for time series that have trend-like patterns and/or seasonal variations.