Definition

The moving average model (forecast strategy 13) is used to exclude irregularities in the time series pattern. This strategy calculates the average of the time series values in the historical time horizon. You define the historical time horizon in the master forecast profile.

Formula for the Moving Average

Use

This forecast strategy is only suitable for time series that are constant; that is, for time series with no trend-like or season-like patterns. As all historical data is equally weighted with the factor 1/n, it takes precisely 'n' periods for the forecast to adapt to a possible level change. No ex-post forecast is calculated with this forecast strategy.