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 Extrapolation for Consumption Registers Locate this document in the navigation structure

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Reg. Fact. = Register factor

MR Result = Meter Reading Result

MR Reason = Meter reading reason

The following meter reading reasons exist:

  • P eriodic meter reading

  • F inal meter reading

  • Meter reading at move-in ( M )

  • Meter reading at installation ( I )

  • Interim meter reading without billing ( Y )

  • Interim meter reading with billing ( Z )

  • C ontrol meter reading

Wght. Units = Weighting units

Expected meter readings are determined by consumption registers as follows:

  1. Determination of meter reading difference P 1 to I:

  2. 80 kWh – 0 kWh = 80 kWh

  3. Determination of consumption to P 1 by multiplying the meter reading difference with the register factor:

  4. 80 kWh2 = 160 kWh

  5. Determination of consumption per weighting unit:

  6. 160 kWh: 40 = 4 kWh

  7. Extrapolation of consumption for period P 1 to P 2

  8. 4 kWh60 = 240 kWh

  9. Determination of the meter reading difference for period P 1 to P 2 by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

  10. 240 kWh: 10 = 24 kWh

  11. Determination of the expected meter reading to P 2 by adding the meter reading difference to meter reading P 1 :

80 kWh + 24 kWh = 104 kWh

When you calculate expected meter reading values from existing meter readings, you must take the minimum portions into account. In the previous example, we assume that period P 1 to I is representative.

Forecasts from Previous Periods

If you include previous periods as the base period category in the installation, the expected meter reading values are calculated based on the corresponding previous period .

Example 1: Forecasts from previous periods with minimum portions

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On installation of the device, a period consumption value of 4000 kWh/year is entered for the register.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 40%, period Y to I is representative. This means that extrapolation is based on meter reading results rather than on period consumption.

  1. Determination of meter reading difference Y to I:

  2. 800 kWh – 0 kWh = 800 kWh

  3. Determination of consumption to Y by multiplying the meter reading difference with the register factor:

  4. 800 kWh2 = 1600 kWh

  5. Determination of consumption per weighting unit:

  6. 1,600 kWh: 400 = 4 kWh

  7. Extrapolation of consumption for period Y to P

  8. 4 kWh600 = 2,400 kWh

  9. Determination of the meter reading difference for period Y to P by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

  10. 2,400 kWh: 10 = 240 kWh

  11. Determination of the expected meter reading to P by adding the meter reading difference to meter reading Y:

800 kWh + 240 kWh = 1040 kWh

The expected meter reading at time P is 1,040 kWh .

Example 2: Forecasts from Previous Periods without Minimum Portions with Period Consumption

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On installation of the device, a period consumption value of 4000 kWh/year is entered for the register.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 20%, period Y to I is not representative. Therefore, extrapolation is based on period consumption rather than on meter reading results:

  1. Determination of period consumption per weighting unit by dividing the period consumption by the weight of validity period.

  2. 4000 kWh: 1000 = 4 kWh

  3. Extrapolation of period consumption for period Y to P:

  4. 4 kWh800 = 3,200 kWh

  5. Determination of the meter reading difference for period Y to P by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

  6. 3,200 kWh: 10 = 320 kWh

  7. Determination of the expected meter reading to P by adding the meter reading difference to meter reading Y:

800 kWh + 320 kWh = 1120 kWh

The expected meter reading at time P is 1,120 kWh .

Example 3: Forecasts from Previous Periods and Changes to Period Consumption Values in the Base Period

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On installation of the device, a period consumption value of 4000 kWh/year is entered for the register. This value is changed to 5000kWh / year for the period I to C.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 10%, period Y to C is not representative. The system goes back to the next meter reading result (I). With 40%, the period Y to I is representative, however, the period consumption value was changed within this period. Therefore, extrapolation is based on period consumption rather than on meter reading results:

  1. Determination of period consumption per weighting unit by dividing the period consumption by the weight of validity period.

  2. 5,000 kWh: 1000 = 5 kWh

  3. Extrapolation of period consumption for period Y to P:

  4. 5 kWh600 = 3,000 kWh

  5. Determination of the meter reading difference for period Y to P by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

  6. 3,000 kWh: 10 = 300 kWh

  7. Determination of the expected meter reading to P by adding the meter reading difference to meter reading Y:

800 kWh + 300 kWh = 1100 kWh

The expected meter reading at time P is 1,100 kWh .

Example 4: Forecasts from Previous Periods and Changes to Period Consumption Values not in the Base Period

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On installation of the device, a period consumption value of 4000 kWh/year is entered for the register. This value is changed to 5000kWh / year for the period I to Z.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 10%, period Y to C is not representative. The system goes back to the previous meter reading result (Z). With 30%, the period Y to Z is representative and the period consumption value was not changed within this period. Therefore, extrapolation is based on meter reading results rather than on period consumption:

  1. Determination of meter reading difference Y to Z:

  2. (800 kWh – 720 kWh) + (720 kWh – 500 kWh) = 300 kWh

  3. Determination of consumption to Y by multiplying the meter reading difference with the register factor:

  4. 300 kWh2 = 600 kWh

  5. Determination of consumption per weighting unit:

  6. 600 kWh: 300 = 2 kWh

  7. Extrapolation of consumption for period Y to P

  8. 2 kWh600 = 1200 kWh

  9. Determination of the meter reading difference for period Y to P by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

  10. 1,200 kWh: 10 = 120 kWh

  11. Determination of the expected meter reading to P by adding the meter reading difference to meter reading Y:

800 kWh + 120 kWh = 920 kWh

The expected meter reading at time P is 920 kWh .

Example 5: Forecasts from Previous Periods and Changes to Period Consumption Values in the Forecast Period

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On installation of the device, a period consumption value of 4000 kWh/year is entered for the register. This value is changed to 5000 kWh / year after the last meter reading result entry in period Y to P.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 40%, period Y to I is representative. One period consumption change was made in the forecast period Y to P. The expected meter reading is determined in the following way:

  1. For the period from Y until the change date, extrapolation is based on meter reading results:

  1. Determination of meter reading difference Y to I:

  2. 800 kWh - 0 kWh = 800 kWh

  3. Determination of consumption to Y by multiplying the meter reading difference with the register factor:

  4. 800 kWh2 = 1600 kWh

  5. Determination of consumption per weighting unit:

  6. 1,600 kWh: 400 = 4 kWh

  7. Extrapolation of consumption for period Y until the change date:

  8. 4 kWh400 = 1600 kWh

  9. Determination of the meter reading difference for period Y until the change date by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

1,600 kWh: 10 = 160 kWh

  1. For the period from the change date to P, consumption is extrapolated from the period consumption:

    1. Determination of period consumption per weighting unit by dividing the period consumption by the weight of validity period.

    2. 5,000 kWh: 1000 = 5 kWh

    3. Extrapolation of period consumption for the period from the change date to P:

    4. 5 kWh200 = 1,000 kWh

    5. Determination of the meter reading difference for the period from the change date to P by dividing the consumption value by the register factor:

    1000 kWh: 10 = 100 kWh

  3. Determination of the expected meter reading to P by adding the meter reading differences to meter reading Y:

800 kWh +160 kWh + 100 kWh = 1060 kWh

The expected meter reading at time P is 1060 kWh .

Forecasts from the Period of the Previous Year

If you include periods of the previous year as the base period category in the installation, the expected meter reading values are extrapolated based on the corresponding period of the previous year .

Based on a forecast date, the system goes back one year and looks for a representative period as a basis for extrapolation.

Note the following exceptions:

Extrapolation for the expected meter readings is based on the previous period rather than the period of the previous year if:

  • No representative period is determined due to a lack of meter reading results.

  • A change has been made to the period consumption value since the day of the last meter reading

Changes to the period consumption are only relevant for periods that follow directly after. If you change the period consumption value after the last meter reading results are taken, the changes only influence forecast periods that come immediately afterwards.

If, however, you want the period consumption to influence the four following forecast periods, you have to enter a period consumption value in every quarter or, on the day of a meter reading result entry, change the period consumption value for the next quarter.

Example 6: Forecasts from the Period of the Previous year and Changes to Period Consumption Values in the Base Period

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On 1.1.96 a period consumption value of 1000 kWh / year was entered for the register. On.5.1.96 for the period T 1 to T 2 .this value was changed to 1200 kWh / year.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 30%, period T 2 to T 1 from the previous year is representative. A change to the period consumption was made within this period. This change does not, however, influence extrapolation for time T 5 , because a period consumption change only influences forecast periods that follow directly after.

The expected meter reading is determined in the following way:

  1. Determination of meter reading difference T 2 to T 1 :

  2. 1200 kWh - 1000 kWh = 200 kWh

    => Consumption to T2 = 200 kWh

  3. Determination of consumption per weighting unit:

  4. 200 kWh: 300 = 2/3 kWh

  5. Extrapolation of consumption for period T 4 to T 5 :

  6. 2/3 kWh300 = 200 kWh

    => Meter reading difference for period T 4 to T 5 = 200 kWh

  7. Determination of the expected meter reading to T 5 by adding the meter reading difference to the meter reading from T 4 :

2000 kWh + 200 kWh = 2200 kWh

The expected meter reading at time T 5 is 2200 kWh .

Example 7: Forecasts from Periods of the Previous Year and Changes to Period Consumption in the Previous Year but not in the Base Period

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On 1.1.96 a period consumption value of 1000 kWh / year was entered for the register. On 11.1.96 for the period T 2 and T 3 .this value was changed to 1200 kWh / year.

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

With a weighting portion of 30%, period T 2 to T 1 from the previous year is representative. No changes were made to the period consumption within this period. The changes that were made to the period consumption between T 2 and T 3 do not influence extrapolation for time T 5 because change to the period consumption only influences forecast periods that follow directly after.

The expected meter reading is determined as in example 6.

Example 8: Forecasts from the Period of the Previous year and Changes to Period Consumption Values in the Forecast Period

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On 1.1.96 a period consumption value of 1000 kWh / year was entered for the register. On 4.1.97, for the period T 4 and T 5, this value was changed to 1200 kWh / year directly after the last periodic meter reading result entry

The minimum portion of weighting in percent is 30%.

The sum of the weighting units for one year is 1000.

Because a change to the period consumption influences the forecast periods that follow directly, in this case, extrapolation is based on the period consumption value rather than the meter reading results of the previous year.

The expected meter reading is determined in the following way:

  1. Determination of period consumption per weighting unit by dividing the period consumption by the weight of validity period.

  2. 1,200 kWh: 1000 = 1.2 kWh

  3. Extrapolation of consumption for period T 4 to T 5 :

  4. 1.2 kWh300 = 360 kWh

  5. Determination of the expected meter reading to T 5 by adding the consumption to the meter reading from T 4 :

2,000 kWh + 360 kWh = 2360 kWh

The expected meter reading at time T 5 is 2,360 kWh .

The change to the period consumption on 4.1.97 no longer has an influence on the determination of the expected consumption for T 6 on 09.30.97 as this is not the forecast period that follows directly. Extrapolation is based on the period of the previous year.

If you want to extrapolate the expected consumption on the basis of period consumption, you have to enter the period consumption value for the next quarter on the day of the last periodic meter reading result entry (T 5 = 97.6.30).

Example 9: Forecasts from period of previous year but period of previous year does not yet exist

If you enter period of previous year in the installation of the base period category but no period of previous year exists (because there has only been a contractual relationship with the customer for half a year for example), extrapolation will occur based on the previous period.

Example 10: Forecast from Period of Previous Year where Period of Previous Year is not Representative

If you include period of previous year in the installation of the base period category, but the period of previous year is not representative, extrapolation occurs based on the previous period.

Example 11: Forecast from Period of Previous Year and Changes in Period Consumption during Customer Change

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During installation it is clear that the consumption pattern of the new customer is different from that of the previous customer (because there are more people in the household, for example). Therefore, a new period consumption value is entered during installation.

The base period category period of previous year is entered in the installation.

Because a change to the period consumption influences the forecast periods that follow directly, in this case, extrapolation is based on the period consumption value rather than the meter reading results of the previous year.

The expected meter reading is determined in the following way:

  1. Determination of period consumption per weighting unit by dividing the period consumption by the weight of validity period.

  2. 3,000 kWh: 1000 = 3 kWh

  3. Extrapolation of consumption for period I to T 4 :

  4. 3 kWh300 = 900 kWh

  5. Determination of the expected meter reading to T 4 by adding the consumption to the meter reading from I:

2,000 kWh + 900 kWh = 2,900 kWh

The expected meter reading at time T 4 is 2900 kWh .

The period consumption value entered at the time of meter reading I, no longer influences the determination of future expected consumption values.

They are extrapolated from the relevant periods of the previous year. Extrapolation based on the period of the previous year would not be correct in this case, because of the knowledge we have about the consumption patterns of the new customer.

For this reason, extrapolation is based on a previous period or a period consumption value for one year after installation, even if the base period category period of previous year is entered in the installation.

After the device has been installed for a year, extrapolation is based on the period of the previous year.