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Example documentationExample: Credit Risk Scenario Locate this document in the navigation structure

 

The following example illustrates a hypothetical scenario for a euro debt crisis.

In the IRB approach, all the risk parameter specifications are applied in the specified countries to the country portfolio only; in the standardized approach for credit risk, they are also applied to multilateral development banks and other public sector entities. These specifications are characterized by their own asset classes in each approach.

  • PD stress: scenario for the segmentation of the PIIGS countries

    Country

    Risk Parameter Specification

    Greece

    PD = 15% (stressed PD value)

    Portugal

    Downgrading of current rating by 3 notches

    Ireland

    Downgrading of current rating by 2 notches

    Spain

    Downgrading of current rating by 2 notches

    Italy

    Relative increase of current PD value by 10%

    The unstressed ratings apply to all other countries and asset classes.

  • Loss given default (LGD)

    An LGD scenario is defined in the same segmentation as for the PD stress scenario. This is restricted to the same countries and asset classes:

    Country

    Risk Parameter Specification

    Greece

    Absolute shift of the current LGD by 10%

    Portugal

    Relative shift of the current LGD by 10%

    Ireland

    Default stressed LGD value of 43.5%

    Spain

    Default stressed LGD value of 41.2%

    Italy

    Absolute shift of the current LGD by 5%

    The unstressed LGDs apply to all other countries and asset classes.

  • Financial collateral/reductions in the value of government bonds

    The stress refers to a reduction in the value of government bonds, which are used as collateral for credit exposures, by the specified percentage:

    Country

    Risk Parameter Specification

    Greece

    50 %

    Portugal

    15 %

    Ireland

    15 %

    Spain

    10 %

    Italy

    3 %

The securities are not stressed for all other countries and asset classes.