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 Model Initialization of Intermittent Forecast Model

Use

After a trip has occurred for a product whose forecast values you calculate with the intermittent model, the system initializes the base value and the initialization period.

Features

The system recalculates the base values as follows:

  • The system calculates the average demand quantity of the last 12 periods and the 12 periods before that. To do so it divides the respective total demand by the respective number of periods that did not have zero requirements.

  • Depending on the trip conditions and the stability rules, the system reconfigures the initialization period as follows:

    • If the trip counter crossed the upper limit and the requirements quantity of the previous year grew in comparison to the year before that, the system only uses the data from the previous year.

    • If the trip counter crossed the upper limit and the requirements quantity of the previous year reduced in comparison to the year before that, the system uses the data from both years.

    • If the trip counter crossed the lower limit, the average requirements quantity of the previous year reduced in comparison to the year before that, and the average time between demand periods is less than or equal to 12, the system only uses the data from the previous year.

    • If the trip counter crossed the lower limit under conditions other than those described above, the system uses the data from both years.