Forecast Models (SAP Library - Sales & Operations Planning (LO-LIS-PLN))

Forecast Models

Use

When a series of consumption values is analyzed, it normally reveals a pattern or patterns. These patterns can then be matched up with one of the forecast models listed below:

Constant¾consumption values vary very little from a stable mean value

Trend¾consumption values fall or rise constantly over a long period of time with only occasional deviations

Seasonal¾periodically recurring peak or low values differ significantly from a stable mean value

Seasonal trend¾continual increase or decrease in the mean value

Copy of actual data (no forecast is executed)¾copies the historical data updated from the operative application, which you can then edit

Irregular¾no pattern can be detected in a series of historical consumption values

This graphic is explained in the accompanying text

Mathematically speaking, the seasonal trend is the most complex of these models. The forecast value consists of a basic value term G from the constant model, a trend term T from the trend model and a seasonal term S from the seasonal model. For more details see Trend and Seasonal Models with First-Order Exponential Smoothing.