Future Event Estimation

During future event estimation, the system calculates the uplift of events that occur in the future based on the values of events from the past.

Integration

The system performs future event estimation every time you run forecasting, or manually create or delete a historical event. If you use price change events as well, future event estimation is triggered once the price key figure is changed in the future horizon.

Prerequisites

The system estimates future events if the following prerequisites are met:

You have specified a planning level based on which you want the system to plan the effect of the event
In Customizing for Advanced Planning and Optimization, choose Supply Chain Planning Demand Planning (DP) Basic Settings Events and Outliers Configure Outlier Detection and Event Catalog Assignments .
You have maintained the settings for future event estimation in Customizing
In Customizing for Advanced Planning and Optimization, choose Supply Chain Planning Demand Planning (DP) Basic Settings Events and Outliers Configure Outlier Detection and Event Catalog Assignments . In the Future Events Estimation view, enter your settings.
You have defined an event catalog, and created event types
On the SAP Access screen, choose Advanced Planning and Optimization Demand Planning Environment Demand Planning Worklist .
There are historical events in the system based on which the system can calculate future events
You have created events in the future horizon that the system reestimates during future event estimation, or selected the Estimate Automatically (Estimate Future Recurring Events Automatically) checkbox in the univariate forecast profile settings.
The periodicity of the event type equals the periodicity of the forecast profile

To use this function, you must activate the business function SCM-APO-FCS, Events and Outliers, Causals, ABC/XYZ Classification (SCM_APO_FORECASTING_1). For more information, see SCM-APO-FCS, Events and Outliers, Causals, ABC/XYZ Classification.

Features

Future Event Estimation Configuration

In Customizing for Advanced Planning and Optimization, under Start of the navigation path Supply Chain Planning Next navigation step Demand Planning (DP) Basic Settings Events and Outliers Configure Outlier Detection and Event Catalog Assignments End of the navigation path you can specify for each planning area and event type the way you want the system to calculate future events. If you select the All Historical Events Considered checkbox, the system considers all of the occurrences of events in the past in the calculation. If you do not select the checkbox, the system takes into account the number of events you specified in the Number of Historical Events Considered checkbox. You can specify the calculation method as simple average or exponentially weighted moving average. For the exponentially weighted mode, you specify the exponential weight factor which is the coefficient base of the historical events. If you choose exponential weighted calculation, but you leave the exponential weight factor initial (0) the system uses the simple average method.

Uplift Calculation

The system calculates the effects of newly created future events as an absolute value pattern based on the configuration described above. If the events are reestimated, the system calculates their effects with the basic value taken into consideration as well, and it calculates the uplift as a percentage value. In any other cases when calculating the uplift as a percentage value is not feasible, for example the basic value is initial, the system calculates the absolute uplift.

Price Change Uplift Calculation

In the case of price change events, the system estimates future events in the same way as described above, but it uses the magnitude of change in the price key figure as a weight factor in the calculation of the effect of the event. Only the changes of the same direction are taken into account (price increase, decrease). If there is no event with the same direction in the past, the system takes into account events with the opposite direction, but with an inverted value.